Tired of Conspiracy Theories

I could go a hundred years without reading another paranoid conspiracy theory. Although they cover such a wide range of topics from the secret Masonic societies to Tulsa’s Vision 2025 plan, the pattern is almost always the same. Facts are sited, sources noted, and invisible lines are drawn between unrelated events to reach an unreasonable conclusion. If any fact contradicts the theory, it is the fact that is wrong. If it can’t be proven, it must be a cover-up. It is always a red flag when the lack of evidence is used as evidence. Maybe a secret cabal of Freemasons is ruling the world and trying to create a satanic global order. I can’t prove that they are not, but why should I have to? The burden is on the claimant to prove that these secret elites are able to somehow control a chaotic political system, contend with conflicting world views, engineer world events to serve their own ends, and avoid exposure. But how could this be done? If “they” own all the news outlets, journalists will never expose them. Even though you can find books about a world-controlling secret society, the society itself cannot be proven to exist because it is… ahem… secret. The theory is completely unfalsifiable. Even if it can be proven that a certain group has benefited by a change in circumstances, it does not necessarily logically follow that that group brought about the change. Causality is not established in that way. There is no meat on which my mind can chew, so I have no interest.

Whenever there is a major world event, small minds seek to find meaning in the event by connecting the dots and creating a picture. The dots may not be related and the picture may be a fantasy, but conspiracy theorists believe them as gospel. The terrorist attacks of September 11th are no exception. One author (sadly, a Frenchman), Thierry Meyssan, connected some dots and concluded that Flight 77 never impacted with the Pentagon. Despite eyewitnesses and photographs, Meyssan reached a conclusion that has no bearing in reality by following conspiracy theorist logic. He made assumptions based on his own limited knowledge. (Read Snope’s refutation of Meyssan’s conspiracy theory here: http://www.snopes.com/rumors/pentagon.htm) For example, when a conspiracy theorist friend of mine tried sell me on the fact that the Bin Laden videos after the invasion of Afghanistan were fake (the video looks doctored, an actor was playing Bin Laden, he looks fatter than earlier pictures of Bin Laden, etc), he made assumptions despite the fact that he has no expertise in any field that could have helped him reach that conclusion. He simply looked at it with the naked eye, assumed that the American government could not possibly be telling the truth, and made up the rest.

Despite my determination to avoid debating with any conspiracy theorists, sometimes they find me by dumb luck. In a recent political science class, former Tulsa City Councilor Todd Huston was a guest speaker. He spent quite a lot of time mapping out a conspiracy behind Tulsa’s Vision 2025 plan (A sales tax increase for some community improvement projects, economic initiatives, etc.). The Tulsa Chamber of Commerce (which in Huston’s eyes must be all-powerful) is secretly profiting from the project. Tulsa has no chance of winning the bids for large corporate projects. Who cares if those people in poorer neighborhoods would benefit from a public pool—why should I have to pay an extra tenth of a cent on my Wonder Bread ™ to pay for it?

You get the idea.

What Huston failed to realize is that all of the above could be true, and the Vision 2025 plan would still be a great boon to Tulsa. A new Arena will be built, more money will be spent on education, and some communities will get some much-needed attention. It is not everything that some hoped for, but it is a lot. Tulsa has a strong community spirit, but the city infrastructure is far behind where it needs to be. We needed to take a step in the right direction, and we did. It is a rare and happy thing when a community can see the big picture and make the necessary investments in its future.

Huston was involved in a failed law suit to declare the 2025 plan unconstitutional. He claims that the judge in the case was effectively bribed or threatened to rule against him. This, despite the fact that his premise—that the multiple projects presented on one bill is a violation of the “single subject rule”—is based on a misunderstanding of the law. On top of accusing a judge of being corrupt, he also believes that the Tulsa World newspaper is out to get him, that his failed reelection bid for his city council seat was rigged, and whole city is run by some kind of liberal elite embodied in the Chamber of Commerce and the Tulsa World.

There is a way of thinking that goes thus: excessive conspiracy-mongering takes attention away from real conspiracies that are going on under our noses. That may be true, but I am not sure how useful it is. It is the error in thinking, not the excessiveness, that makes conspiracy theories such a nuisance. I am skeptical of all news sources, but I know that there is ultimately a limit to how much I can verify. It is that part of adulthood that causes a person to realize that he doesn’t know everything, and never will. By learning to read critically, and in some cases applying a sort of rudimentary game theory, I categorize information according to how likely or unlikely it is to be true. I will not rule out the possibility that the 9/11 attacks were a secret CIA operation, but I would call that very unlikely. Those who make extraordinary claims must provide extraordinary evidence. Unfortunately, in conspiracy theory circles, extraordinary claims are thrown around as if they were solid facts. Even when they accidentally hit on something true and profound, they immediately spin off in some wild direction. It is that way of thinking that bothers me, and for that reason I will pass over any opportunity to debate those extraordinary claims. I will leave that battle to those who have more patience with stupidity than I do.

© 2004 Bryan Lower

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