Endgame for Obama

The results of Super Tuesday left the Democratic presidential nomination uncertain, but it did show us where the candidates need to target their efforts. Hillary Clinton came up big in the delegate-rich states of California, New York, and Massachusetts, but Barack Obama won more total states, and was strong in the South and Midwest. This follows the news that Obama raised $32 million in January, compared to Clinton’s $13.5 million, which will give the young Senator from Illinois the resources he needs to carry on. His strategists and advisors, however, must acknowledge that the campaign doesn’t last forever, and if he hopes to win he must take the lead soon. He needs an endgame strategy that will take that last bit of ground that Hillary still holds.

Before we can determine where to go, we must first know where we are. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates? Hillary did very well among white women, and among Latino voters in California. She has been spelling out specific policy goals, which helps her sell her “experience.” She also won heavily in the big East Coast and West Coast states, which are traditionally big Democratic strongholds in the general election. To be fair, she also won in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Her dominance on the coasts does not mean that she is the favorite of urban areas. It was Obama’s urban voters that gave him Missouri.

Obama still has the same assets that have appealed to voters since day one. He is inspirational, and he draws college students and independent voters. He won heavily in states with large African-American populations, and he did surprisingly well among white men. So much for the Clintonites’ hope that angry white racists would derail Obama’s campaign. Where Barack falls short is in specific policy proposals. That’s not to say he hasn’t talked about policy. He has, but he hasn’t played it up like Hillary has. He doesn’t give a laundry list of programs—laundry lists are not especially inspirational. He was also weak among Latinos, a voting bloc that could be a huge Democratic asset in November.

So how does Barack Obama close the deal? I think he needs to bring out his inner wonk. He has already proved that he can inspire people, and his organization has shown that they can turn that inspiration into votes. Now, he needs to prove that he can crunch the numbers, dig into the data, and lay down some knowledge about policy. Yes, voters get the “change” message, but now they want to know what he wants to change. His health care plan is very reasonable and principled, and without an adult mandate it has a greater chance of passing in its original form than does Clinton’s plan. He needs to get that out there. He needs to talk about what he would do about Iran and Pakistan, referencing specific people and events. He needs to talk about the economy and the budget in terms of what he would do to fix our current problems.

It is a risky strategy. When you start talking specifics, you risk losing individuals who don’t like the details as much as they like the big picture. “Change” is something everyone (except, I guess, for the Republican candidates) wants, but by using broad terms you allow voters to project their own ideas of change onto the candidate. When you flesh out your own plans, some of those voters may discover that their image doesn’t fit yours. And let’s not forget that Hillary has been stumping her laundry list for months. Can Barack out-wonk Hillary?

There comes a time when you are faced with the choice of taking a shot at winning, or playing not to lose. It’s the fourth quarter—do you kick a field goal to tie or do you take a risky shot down the field to win? There is no overtime in presidential elections. If Obama hopes to win the nomination, he needs to take the shot. He doesn’t need to beat Hillary at her own game, he only needs to reassure a few fence-sitters that he has the policy chops to beat John McCain.

Right now, Barack and Hillary are nearly tied in the delegate race. She has 783 to his 709. The difference is accounted for by her greater number of superdelegates, which is about the same margin she had before February 5th. In effect, they are exactly where they were last week. Obama has a big war chest with which to flood the media with ads. Hillary would like to have more debates, as it gives her some free publicity. I would suggest that Obama take her up on those debates, and use those opportunities to hit those policy points hard. That, combined with the heavy use of paid media, might put him over the top. There is no reason to hold anything back now. The finish line is too close.

© 2008 Bryan Lower

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