And So it Goes On…

After eleven straight wins for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton won three out of four contests on March 4th, 2008. What this means for the Democratic presidential race is not clear, but it gives me an ominous feeling of impending doom. The optimist in me doesn’t want to give up the fight, but the realist in me is having a hard time seeing a strategy for victory.

In February, polls showed that Obama had an edge over McCain in a head-to-head race(1) , while McCain beat Clinton.(2) It is not difficult to see why. Hillary has very little appeal to independent voters, while both Obama and McCain have cultivated reputations as independent. Most of the party base will vote for the party, as usual. Independent swing voters will make the difference. The numbers of both Democrats head-to-head against McCain have slipped since then, perhaps due to the fact that McCain can now focus on the general election, while the Democrats are still fighting amongst themselves.

Republican strategists have said repeatedly that they would rather run against Clinton than Obama. Matthew Dowd believes that it would be difficult to find a line of attack against Obama, while the old hatred of the Clintons is still alive and well. The most unifying figure for the Republican Party is not John McCain, it is Hillary Clinton.(3) Rush Limbaugh went so far as to urge his listeners to vote for Hillary in the Texas primary.(4)

The secret to Obama’s success is his avoidance of the old Democratic message and his reframing of issues in a way that appeals to nonpartisans. He is no moderate. He rated as the most liberal member of the Senate.(5) He has won by running on a progressive agenda, not running away from it. The potential benefits for Democrats are enormous. By bringing independents into the fold, he could establish a permanent progressive Democratic majority. Such a broad support could be a launching pad for progressive programs such as universal health care, and it could put regressive conservatism out for the count.

One thing you can always depend on Democrats to do, though, is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If Hillary can’t win on ideas or inspiration, she will win by bullying. She has launched a campaign of relentless negativity. One ad, which critics have called fear-mongering, tries to invoke panic at the thought of Barack Obama answering the White House bat-phone at 3 AM.(6) It didn’t take long for parodies to be produced.(7) The attacks have chipped away at Barack’s momentum, but it has not guaranteed Hillary the nomination. Will she still feel justified in using these tactics if it weakens the party’s chances against McCain?

As we watch CNN, waiting for the results of Texas’s absurd primary/caucus, we have to endure Paul Begala telling us that this is a good thing for the party. I don’t know how any Democrat can look at this in-fighting and call it a good thing. Hillary Clinton likes it, I’m sure, because it allows her to stay in the race. For the party though, it allows the Republicans to begin fundraising and strategizing for the general election. McCain’s first TV ads are already ready. He is no doubt salivating at the opportunity to run against Clinton, as it makes his job easier. He doesn’t have to worry about getting independents—he’ll get them anyway. He will only have to worry about securing Conservative voters, and anti-Clinton sentiment will do that for him.

Can someone please lay out a scenario that ends with a Clinton victory over McCain? She will not get most independents, who will either stay home or vote for McCain. Anti-war liberals may hold their noses to vote for her, because of her early support of the Iraq war. Some liberals will jump ship and vote for Ralph Nader. As we saw in 2000, it doesn’t take many splitters to change the outcome of the election. Conservatives will unite against her. Moderates who are tired of the campaign tactics that Hillary is using will become disillusioned with the process (again), and withhold their votes. She has campaigned on her greater “experience” over Obama, but McCain will have the edge in experience. What about the traditional Democratic alliances? Labor unions, minorities, and women? Those stalwarts have been dwindling for decades.

In 2009, we may be starting George W. Bush’s third term. We can forget about ending the war and providing universal health care. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, I’m afraid we may all have to get used to saying the words “President McCain.”

© 2008 Bryan Lower

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