The Alternate End to the Iraq War

In the fall of 2006 the American voters made their voices heard and gave the Democrats control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. President George W. Bush followed by allowing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to resign. In December the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group released their highly anticipated report. It concluded that phased withdrawal, Iraqi government intervention, and diplomacy throughout the entire Middle East Region would be the best option. Being “the decider,” after hearing from the committee headed by his father’s Secretary of State James Baker and former representative Lee Hamilton, President Bush talked with his advisors key cabinet members and Vice President Dick Cheney to discuss the way forward in Iraq. In January of 2007, President Bush, in a televised speech, explained that an additional 21,000 (although over 30,000 would actually be sent) troops would be needed in order to secure victory in Iraq. General David Petraeus commander of all American forces in Iraq has gone before Congress twice since then to answer questions and report on the status of the surge. In September of 2007 he said they were making progress. In April of 2008 he was more reserved, but said that troop levels should remain until the end of the summer. Over four thousand American troops have sacrificed their lives and over six hundred billion dollars have been spent for Bush and Cheney’s war. But what if things had gone a little differently?

In January of 2007 President Bush addressed the nation. In his speech he said “The American people have spoken and the Iraq Study Group has concluded that a phased withdrawal is the only realistic option. ” He later went on to discuss diplomacy with Syria and Iran in the address that lasted about 25 minutes. Immediately, things began to change. Although levels of violence have slightly increased, with the troops’ phased withdrawal, American casualties are at a low not seen since the beginning of the war in March of 2003. Diplomacy with all nations is achieved in April of 2007 with the first ever Middle-East/Persian Gulf Region Peace Summit, with leaders of Egypt, Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, The Palestinian Authority, Afghanistan Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as representatives from the U. S. , U. K. , Japan, China, Russia, Germany, France, and Spain and India. Finally, in June of 2007, not only do George Bush’s approval ratings increase from forty-five to sixty percent, but Dick Cheney resigns after Scooter Libby was sentenced to jail time. Let’s take a more in depth look at these key issues.

In February of 2007, troop levels will begin to dissipate. Phased withdrawal will take well over a year, but with fewer troops to be shot at, fewer troops are shot, wounded, or hurt. Violence in Iraq began to escalate slightly at the onset, but the Sunni tribal leaders got tired of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and made deals with the locals and each other to eliminate them. With the American and Coalition forces leaving, the Iraqi’s have no choice but to stand up for their country and defend it from terrorists and sectarian violence. After April’s Baghdad Accord was signed (see below), things really start to improve. The entire region including Iran and Syria supported Iraq, and despite the previous battles between the Sunni’s, Shia’s and Kurds, Iraq began to build a power sharing union, with both oil revenue (the increased production of oil later in the year in Iraq will help to lower prices slightly around the world) and governmental power. Al-Qaeda in Iraq would dissipate and eventually leave Iraq all together. By the end of 2007, refugees who left Iraq started returning to rebuild their homes. Things are looking up for Iraq in 2008. The Bagdad Accord was a major reason for the recent success in Iraq.

The Baghdad Accord was signed near the end of April of 2007 after nearly three weeks of ironing out a final agreement involving all the nations of the region, and many of the major nations of the world. The chief writers of the accord were actually kept secret, but it was widely believed that it was outlined initially by persons in the Iraq Study Group. The meeting took place in the Baghdad Green Zone heavily secured by Coalition Forces, as well as secret service agents from around the globe to protect their representatives. For much of first week Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki laid out the situation as best he could. At times he almost came to tears. President Bush, who did not attend the entire meeting, spoke on the fifth day, explaining what he thought four years of occupation had accomplished in Iraq. His policies had gotten Saddam Hussein out of power and recently executed, as well as brought Iraq free elections. He also said there was much to be done, but that American troops could do little to help the situation anymore, besides training and helping to build infrastructure, but corporations from all over the world should take over that job. Tony Blair, less than two months before officially stepping down would also make an appearance early in the second week and explain what the British had achieved, and then all of the Middle Eastern and Persian Gulf Region of nations discussed what they could possibly do to help. Iran would be the biggest problem at the meetings, but even they got on board when the U. S. cut a deal with them. In the biggest backroom political move during the summit, the U. S. in a bizarre shift of policy determined if Iran would help with their borders with both Iraq and Afghanistan monitoring weapons, the U. S. would put Iran under less scrutiny toward its Nuclear Program. When this story became public in June, it would set of a chaotic chain of events that would eventually lead to Dick Cheney’s resignation.

After the Baghdad Accord was signed in the end of April, it would only be a matter of time before “Scooter” Libby was sentenced for his role in leaking the name of an undercover CIA agent. George Bush came home after making a second trip to Iraq in the same month to sign the Accord to the largest approval rating he had seen since 2003. When the troops started coming home, Americans started spending more money boosting the economy, and many troops got their honorable discharge paperwork and would start attending college using their G. I. bills. Americans were looking forward to a good summer; they just had no idea how good. In June, when the story was leaked about the easement of scrutiny toward Iran’s Nuclear Program, and things got a little strange. Two days after the story, Dick Cheney said he “did not completely agree with the compromise.” Two days later a defiant President Bush starting to speak and step with a little swagger made an off the cuff statement concerning Iran, declaring “That was certainly not my idea, but I went along with it, and yeah, the Vice President, he, wasn’t in the room that night, and frankly he hasn’t been in the room much at all lately.” Around a month later, the day before “Scooter” Libby was sent to jail, it’s said he had something of an epiphany. He went to special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald and explained in every detail the person that was really responsible for the leaked name, the bad intelligence and everything else, and he said he had evidence. Before Special Prosecutor Fitzgerald could even begin to examine the evidence that morning an announcement came over the wires, “The Vice President has resigned.” There was no other statement, no press conference, just an aid passing a note to a White House reporter. Dick Cheney never made another public appearance. Nancy Pelosi would be sworn in as Vice President, which was televised on prime-time television. Immediately, she stated she would not run for President in 2008 amid much laughter. The rest of 2007 would be characterized by a focus back to Afghanistan and hunting down Osama bin Laden, which in 2008 troops have been “incredibly hot on the trail” according to a White House spokesperson.

One change in policy could have an amazing impact the whole world. It’s hard to imagine that instead of being engaged with more troops in a seemingly never ending war, we could have stopped it before it got worse. Starting a war under false pretenses is a very bad idea, see Vietnam. Diplomacy and compromise are paramount to success on any level from a personal relationship to a relationship amongst several nations. Wars in modern times have often only caused more problems, and more suffering. The only ways for the human race to survive the impending global changes that are bound to come is by come together and strive as one unit to be the best and to do the best for our Earth. America can lead way toward more solutions to lives problems, but America must listen to the rest of the world. In this situation, a more influenced U. S. would be better suited to lead the path toward achieving a new list of goals for man.

© 2008 Joshua B. Probst

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